With global wheat supplies at their strongest levels in years, UK farmers are being encouraged to remain proactive in their grain marketing, as forward premiums remain one of the few available tools to protect value in a subdued marketplace.
According to Saxon Ag grain market specialist Arron Mayhew, the world is currently “awash with wheat” following exceptional harvests across Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia and Europe. A recent USDA report confirms there are no significant supply risks on the horizon – a key factor keeping global prices under sustained pressure.
While a modest recent uplift in UK prices has been noted, this movement is driven largely by speculative fund behaviour and tentative signals from the US–China trade relationship, rather than any fundamental tightening in supply. Farmers should therefore be cautious about expecting a sustained price recovery, Mayhew warns.
Carry still matters – but it’s not what it was
Despite the broader market backdrop, Mayhew says carry remains an important consideration when planning sales, even though the level of premium available has reduced compared with earlier in the season. “Carry has been one of the few areas offering additional value, but a lot of that has now gone,” he explains. “The message hasn’t changed — when carry is there, it’s worth using — but farmers shouldn’t assume the levels we saw earlier in the season are still available.”
As markets move closer to delivery periods, any remaining carry continues to erode, reducing the benefit of holding grain without a forward position in place.
“Each month that passes, the opportunity diminishes,” Mayhew says. “If you leave everything to the spot market later on, you’re relying entirely on price movement — and at the moment there’s little in the global picture to support that.”
Given the significant farm retention this season, domestic supply has temporarily tightened, helping underpin spot prices. However, with global stocks remaining high and demand indicators soft, this support is unlikely to be long-lived.
What farmers should prioritise over the next 8–12 weeks
Looking ahead, Mayhew advises growers to focus on:
- Using forward selling strategically where carry exists, recognising that premiums are now smaller and more time-sensitive
- Building a clear marketing plan rather than relying on short-term price movements
- Planning spring cropping and securing contracts early, particularly as winter wheat drilling has progressed strongly and spring barley area is forecast to fall
He stresses that in a market dominated by supply, disciplined decision-making remains essential: “Global supply is doing the talking. Forward planning and using the tools available — including carry when it appears — is still the most reliable way to manage risk.”
With no clear bullish catalyst on the horizon, structured selling strategies remain key for growers navigating a heavily supplied global grain market.
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