Farmers are being advised to start discussions with fertiliser suppliers early this season, with geopolitical disruption increasing the risk that delivery capacity rather than physical product availability could become the limiting factor.
The Farming Fertiliser Stakeholder Group says the fertiliser market is entering the season with less flexibility than normal. While this does not mean fertiliser is currently unavailable in the UK, the supply chain may have less capacity to absorb a large volume of late orders.
For crop production, timing is particularly important with nitrogen.
Spring nitrogen applications are concentrated into a relatively short period, and the value of the fertiliser depends on getting it to the farm and onto the crop at the appropriate stage. A tonne of nitrogen sitting in a port, warehouse or on a lorry is of little agronomic use if it cannot reach the farm when the crop needs it.
The supply chain involves considerably more than manufacturing fertiliser. Product may need to be imported or produced, moved through ports, stored, blended, bagged, loaded and transported before it reaches the field.
Every stage has a finite capacity.
If farmers collectively delay purchasing decisions and then attempt to secure supplies within a short period, the resulting concentration of demand could create pressure on storage, processing and haulage capacity.
This year’s situation is further complicated by changes in international supply patterns. The continuing effects of the war in Ukraine, sanctions, banking restrictions and uncertainty surrounding Russian-origin fertiliser and raw materials have reduced the reliability of some established supply routes.
Disruption affecting Gulf markets has also added pressure to global nitrogen supply chains, with the region playing an important role in natural gas, ammonia, urea and sulphur markets.
For growers, this reinforces the value of treating nutrient planning as part of the wider cropping programme rather than leaving fertiliser procurement until immediately before application.
Early discussions with suppliers can provide an indication of availability and delivery times while crop plans and nutrient requirements are still being finalised. Farmers can also use this period to review soil-test results, previous crop performance and realistic yield expectations.
The stakeholder group says suppliers may be able to support earlier planning through part-load and split-load deliveries, including coordinated deliveries to neighbouring farms.
There is therefore no suggestion that farmers should automatically purchase their entire annual requirement immediately. Rather, the recommendation is to provide suppliers with an early indication of likely demand so that imports, production, storage and transport can be planned.
For a crop, nutrient timing is ultimately a biological constraint. The fertiliser supply chain has physical constraints of its own. This season, managing the two together could be particularly important.
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