The first fusarium infection risk forecast for 2017 has been published by AHDB and can be around at https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/fusarium
The weekly forecasts are available during the main winter wheat flowering period and can be used, alongside local knowledge, to guide the T3 spray decision and completion of the mycotoxin risk assessment
Anthesis started in the week ending 30 May, with early varieties (such as Grafton) having anthers visible. An estimated 5% of the national crop area had started anthesis at this time. An estimated 60% of these crops were at low risk of infection, while 40% were classed as at moderate risk.
The recent rainfall and warm weather has led to a very short and accelerated flowering period in many areas (especially the South and the East). An estimated 33% of the wheat area was at mid-anthesis by week ending 8 June.
The largest areas of crops which had started anthesis (GS61 to GS69) this week were in the Eastern (~210,000ha), South East (~84,000ha) and Yorkshire (~82,000ha) regions.
Anthesis has yet to start in the North East and Wales regions, although in Scotland around 8% of the crop area is now at the early anthesis stage.
Rainfall averaged 27mm (GB average) in the week ending 6 June, although the patchy nature of the rainfall meant there was a great deal of variability between regions and counties. The Eastern, East Midlands and South East regions – where the most crops reached mid-anthesis – saw average rainfall range from 14 to 21mm.
The showery conditions meant an estimated 79% of crops at anthesis this week were at moderate risk of infection. All crops at anthesis in Yorkshire and the East Midlands were at moderate risk of infection, while 80% to 90% of crops in the West Midlands, South East and South West were at moderate risk. In the Eastern region, 56% of crops were at moderate risk of infection, with the remainder at low risk (figure 1).
To access the full report and regional fusarium infection risk maps, visit https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/fusarium
